Monthly Market Analysis – July 2025

Posted: 7-2-25 | Innovia Wealth

Innovia Planning Insights: Mid-Year Estate Planning Checkup: Are You Still on Track?

Summer is not just a time for vacations and backyard barbecues; it is also an ideal moment to ensure your estate plan still matches your life and goals. Families evolve, assets shift, and laws change, making a mid-year checkup a proactive move.

Estate Plan Review Checklist:

  1. Wills & Trusts
  • Have significant family changes occurred (births, deaths, marriages, divorces)?
  • Do your documents accurately reflect your current wishes?
  1. Beneficiary Designations
  • Review IRAs, 401(k)s, life insurance, and investment accounts.
  • Remember, these designations override your will.
  1. Powers of Attorney & Healthcare Directives
  • Are your chosen agents still appropriate?
  • Confirm your documents comply with current state laws.
  1. Digital Assets
  • Include access details for digital accounts, cryptocurrency, and online services.
  • Consider a digital inventory or password manager.
  1. Asset Titling
  • Ensure your assets (real estate, businesses, joint accounts) align with your estate strategy.
  1. Charitable Giving Strategy
  • Evaluate your giving strategy now to optimize by year-end.
  • Explore options like donor-advised funds or charitable trusts.

We are ready to help you navigate these updates seamlessly. In collaboration with your estate planning attorney, we will make sure your plan remains aligned with where you are today and where you want to go tomorrow.

 

Market Dynamics

Asset Class 1 month returns Year to date (chart below) 3-year returns (annualized) 5-year returns (annualized)
Large companies (S&P 500) 5.1% 6.2% 19.7% 16.6%
Big technology businesses (Nasdaq 100) 6.3% 8.4% 26.4% 18.4%
Small companies (Russell 2000) 5.4% -1.8% 10.0% 10.0%
Foreign stocks (ACWI ex US) 3.5% 18.3% 14.6% 10.7%
Bonds (Bloomberg US Aggregate) 1.5% 4.0% 2.6% -0.7%

Line chart of total returns YTD as of July 1, 2025. MSCI ACWI ex USA leads at 18.3%, followed by Nasdaq 100 at 8.4%, S&P 500 at 6.2%, Bloomberg US Aggregate flat, and Russell 2000 down 1.8%.

 

June Market Recap: A Strong Month for Stocks and Bonds Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Despite considerable geopolitical noise, June proved to be a strong month for both stocks and bonds.

Equity and fixed income markets delivered positive returns as fears over tariffs and the U.S. fiscal budget eased. This was particularly surprising given major geopolitical events; Israel launched strikes on Iran’s air defenses and key military leaders, followed by the U.S. joining the effort to impede Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Oil prices initially surged 23% in June, yet markets seemed largely unfazed (oil ended the month up only 4.6-7.4%).

Year-to-date, foreign stocks have led the way, up 18.3%, buoyed primarily by a weakening U.S. dollar     (-10.8%). Large U.S. companies and major tech firms have fully rebounded from earlier tariff and budget concerns, though small businesses are still recovering. Fixed income markets have also performed well, delivering a 4.0% return (8.2% annualized) so far in 2025. Some sectors—like mortgage-backed securities—have done even better. With interest rates mostly flat, bonds are generating strong coupon returns not seen in decades.

Economic Growth Is Rebounding

After a sluggish first quarter driven by inventory stockpiling and gold purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs, U.S. economic growth appears to have accelerated to around 3% in Q2. The reasons are straightforward: a strong labor market—with little change in unemployment or new jobless claims—has supported robust consumer spending. Since consumption makes up 60–70% of U.S. GDP, confident consumers point to continued economic expansion.

U.S. economic growth seems to have rebounded in the second quarter.

 

Line chart showing the Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP growth estimate for Q2 2025 compared to Blue Chip consensus forecasts. The GDPNow estimate (green line) rises sharply in early June, peaking near 4.5%, before declining to around 3% by late June. The Blue Chip consensus (blue line and shaded area) remains steady around 2%, with a range of top and bottom 10 forecasts forming a blue band.

 

Looking Ahead: Budget and Tariffs, Round Two

Fixed income markets are closely watching the federal budget plan progressing through Congress. So far, it appears to include little meaningful spending cuts or tax increases. While this supports near-term economic growth, it may also put upward pressure on long-term interest rates due to rising deficit concerns. Bond prices reflect expectations for growth and inflation—stronger growth and higher inflation tends to push bond prices down and rates up. With rising government debt, higher long-term rates are likely over time.

Long-term bond rates indicate expectations for economic growth and inflation.

Line chart titled “Federal Reserve Economic Forecasts” showing projections from 2025 to the long run. GDP (blue line) gradually rises from 1.7% in 2025 to 1.8%. Inflation (orange line) declines from 2.8% to 2.0%. The resultant 10-year interest rate projection (yellow line) drops from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.8% by 2027 and remains steady in the long run.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htm

Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues trade negotiations with major economies including China, India, the EU, Canada and Mexico. The 90-day pause in tariffs that began in April ends in July, setting the stage for potentially market-moving developments. New trade deals could boost sentiment, while renewed threats or failed negotiations may have the opposite effect. Since the outcome is uncertain, we are not attempting to predict it—we have positioned portfolios to remain resilient under either scenario.

Investment Strategy & Outlook

Diversification remains key. Public markets continue to offer wider valuation disparities than private markets, though with more volatility. We do not recommend underweighting U.S., large-cap, or growth stocks—but we do see more attractive valuations among international, small-cap, and value stocks.

Fixed income continues to deliver solid yields and downside protection. The current environment offers 4% to 7% yields across a range of credit qualities—from safest to the very safe. If recession risks rise, intermediate and long-term bonds are likely to rally, even as riskier assets may struggle. This yield-plus-protection profile is exactly what we want from our protective assets.

We are actively reallocating capital away from core real estate—which currently offers lower returns and limited inflation protection—and toward private infrastructure, where return prospects appear meaningfully stronger. In private equity, we continue to find value in smaller company buyouts where managers are enhancing capital efficiency and operational performance. Private credit also remains attractive, with healthy yields and limited interest rate risk due to short durations and floating-rate structures.

Final Thoughts

There is no shortage of headlines—geopolitical and economic—but beneath the surface, the economy remains solid. We continue to focus on areas where we see lower risk or higher return potential, and we believe your portfolio reflects that disciplined approach.

As always, please reach out with any questions or thoughts about the markets, the economy, or how we’re positioning your portfolio.

 

Private Market Pulse: Co-Investments

There are often two distinct ways an investor can access the private markets.  Making broad investments into a fund of underlying companies is typically more common and offers greater diversification.  In comparison, co-investments in private markets offer investors the opportunity to directly invest alongside the manager in specific deals, often with reduced fees and greater transparency. This structure allows investors to selectively increase exposure to high-conviction opportunities while maintaining alignment with top-tier fund managers. Because co-investments typically bypass the traditional fund structure, they can offer a more efficient fee model, often avoiding all or a portion of the management and performance fee structure—resulting in potentially enhanced returns.

Additionally, co-investments enable better portfolio customization to better align with your investment goals.  As investors, we can target specific sectors, geographies, or stages of development that align with our broader investment strategy. This increased control and visibility not only aids in risk management but also offers valuable insights into the investment process, strengthening institutional knowledge and relationships between the investor and manager.  Within our Innovia Vintage Fund series, we prioritize partnering with managers who will extend co-investment opportunities to Innovia and our clients.